Everyone’s favorite industry analyst, Michael Pachter, has predicted that Rockstar’s next big GTA game could be in our hands by the end of October, 2010. Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, went on the record today to with GameSpot to discuss why Take-Two Interactive (Rockstar’s parent company) went from a “hold” to a “buy” on his stock ratings.
Pachter explained that he estimates that the “The Lost and Damned” expansion pack for GTAIV has already been downloaded over a million times (that’s $20 million in sales, for those counting), and that he expects another million downloads on top of that by October 31.
Now comes the real bombshell: Pachter thinks that a new entry in the GTA franchise will hit shelves by the end of Take Two’s 2010 fiscal year. Specifically, Pachter was quoted as saying that “we believe that the company’s share price fully reflects the cautious guidance, and disregards a potential GTA release in fiscal year 2010, as well as better performance in the future.” No doubt this is a bold assumption; but Take-Two did just sign a long term contract with Rockstar and the GTA creators.
My take: if Rockstar is able to rake in 7 digits with downloadable expansions, there’s no reason to think they won’t do more. Lost and Damned released exclusively on the Xbox 360, just imagine if they come out with one or two more downloadable expansions for both consoles and the PC. They wouldn’t need to put out a new game until the launch of a new console, which most people think will happen later rather than sooner.
However, Pachter is consistently accurate in his analysis; a lot of money rides on his predictions, and he doesn’t just throw out any old garbage he thinks is newsworthy. We’ll just have to wait and see if he’s right.