Why Kinect Will Fail

Microsoft is prepping Kinect in hopes that it will become a new standard in gaming, but it seems Microsoft’s goal will not be achievable due to certain obstacles in Kinect’s way. Several mistakes have been made by Microsoft, mistakes that give Kinect a harder time at becoming a success. Just like any pioneer device, Kinect needs a stable ground to build upon. The mistakes Microsoft has made are ones that destroy the stable ground Kinect needs.

For Kinect to become a success Microsoft needs to appeal to either of the two types of gamers, hardcore or casual. If Microsoft were to target the casual gamers they would need to make a device that does something simple, creative, impressive and cheap, the most important one of these is cheap. The Wii is a system that offered all of these. If the Wii was not cheap it would have been a failure. Imagine if at launch the Wii was released for $300 and to get the Wii remote was $150, the Wii would have been Nintendo’s biggest failure since the Virtual Boy, a failure that Kinect seems destined for.

Since Microsoft apparently can’t offer the device at any price lower than $150 the only audience left is the hardcore gamer. The hardcore gamer is the market that is already there for Microsoft, they already have the console now they just need a reason to buy Kinect. For many hardcore gamers the reason for buying Kinect would be to play a great game. If this game could only be played with Kinect hardcore gamers would flock to stores to get Kinect. So with this in mind all Microsoft needs to do is have a game lined up for Kinect that is so great hardcore gamers can’t stay away. Instead we are left with games like Kinectimals and Joy Ride. These are games that are directly targeted for the casual gamer. With Kinect lacking appeal to both hardcore and casual gamers there is no stable ground for Kinect.. This will bring Kinect’s profits to a halt in less than a year unless Microsoft can find the hardcore game they desperately need.

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  • tbw

    that makes cents

  • Tim Larkin

    There’s a Kinect bundle that includes a 360 for $299. The Wii launched at $250, and sold on Ebay for hundreds more. The price is not an issue. With controllers for two players, the Wii cost more.

    • xboxfan

      I have a feeling nintendo is going to cut the price of their console to 150

      • John

        Nintendo cut the Wii price last year, so they can’t cut it again for a while. Nintendo has already publicly said there will be no Wii price cut this year.

    • Zac Campbell (exterminator13)

      Note even a casual gamer could stand to use only 4 gigs

      • Daniel Lawson

        They use a lot less witht he Wii… so your point is wrong

    • mgomgom

      you do know that they are comparing an add-on tech with a freaking CONSOLE?!

  • Alex

    You’re wrong, Kinect is fresh, easy to use and very technologic…people will buy it whatever it coast, especially for christmas. And don’t forget the agressive marketing MS will do.

    one more thing, pre orders for kinect are so high, more than 100 days in top 100 on, 1 month before release. You can’t deny this fact.

    • Matt L

      Something selling well does not make it a good device.

  • John

    The Kinect Xbox 360 bundle that includes the console, Kinect, a controller, and a game only costs $299. The Wii when it launched was $250. Most people who bought a Wii needed to buy a second controller and nunchuk which made the Wii more expensive at launch than the $299 Kinect bundle.

    I don’t think Kinect is that expensive considering how much more advanced it is than Wii.

    There is no doubt that Kinect is going to be a success. Not only is it one of the most amazing pieces of technology we’ve ever seen, but it has tremendous 3rd party publisher support and a huge marketing campaign. Kinect is going to be the most wanted Christmas toy and there are tons of games coming out for it this year.

  • So you’re saying Microsoft would create a sales advantage if they forced people into buying Kinect because they cannot use the game with a normal controller? I don’t see how that idea can’t go wrong!

    You’re also saying that there is no money in casual gaming. Are you kidding me??!! The Nintendo Wii was an international gold mine with women and children. It costs more than a Kinect too.

    Xbox 360 has enough to go around for hardcore gamers. We have every shooter game you can think of coming out annually. Microsoft is just expanding their demographic to pull in people and children of all ages.

    The point is that this is what people want. Sony on the band wagon too. Hands free innovation is the way of the future.

    • Zac Campbell (exterminator13)

      I’ll clarify some things real quick:
      Yes, Microsoft would gain an advantage from doing that, I don’t support the idea but it would be the easy way for Microsoft to gain money.

      There is money in casual gaming but casual gamers aren’t going to spend the asking price of the Kinect and the 360.

      Xbox 360 does have enough for hardcore gamers, and it is smart to expand to casual gamers but you can’t do that when you want something out of a casual gamers price range.

      Motion controlled gaming is the future. I wanted to put the PS Move in my article but it didnt seem to fit. I think that the PS Move has done it right, they have a cheaper asking price for the device and while appealing to casual gamers they have also definitely brought appeal to hardcore gamers, with games like Resident Evil, Killzone, and SOCOM, all we have seen like that from Kinect is Forza and that is not enough.

      • So really its all about price for you. I get that. However, Microsoft has already sold millions of Xbox 360s. So a vast majority of people only need to buy the $150 Kinect. Even if they needed both, it’s not much more than a Wii.

        I agree that Move’s launch games are better, but you do need to remember that these are just launch games. They will only get better.

        • Makidian

          You are clearly missing the point he is trying to make. There are absolutely millions of X360’s out there and the vast majority of those are core gamers owning them. Seeing as Kinect as zero core games set for launch with Kinect and the vast majority of 360 gamers have let out a collective ‘MEH’ to the idea of getting one, that only leaves the casual market for Microsoft to cater to and it’s clear that is what they are doing.

          But in doing this they are isolating their fanbase and the gamers that put them where they are in an effort to chase a crowd that doesn’t want to spend a lot of money on a console, nor do they want a hassle in setting it up and Kinect is both of those things. It doesn’t even matter what the Wii launched at because people will look at it and the Wii and the Wii is half the price (practically).

          It doesn’t matter how innovative it is because they aren’t trying to appease both sides at the same time with a solid line of games that are both casual and core.

          The Wii sold well because of several different factors that came together in a perfect storm but a big part of it was ease of use and positive word of mouth, neither of which is sustainable with the Kinect. They need the core gamers to snap these things up and praise it to help bolster sales and they will not get it.

          • I completely understand his opinion. Maybe it will stand, maybe it won’t. We’ll find out this holiday season I guess.

            I’m not going to buy Kinect when it comes out and I don’t think it’s going to revolutionize the industry. I just think calling it a failure before you’ve even tried it is harsh.

  • Slim

    I have already purchased my Kinect and would not consider myself a hardcore or casual gamer. $150 is really not to much to invest to get my kids playing the Xbox with me. Hell Dinner and a movie for 4 and I am out almost the same amount for one night. While I may get a year, two or three out of a gaming device. I just don’t see it failing with the current install base that is out there. Gaming is entrenched and people love it and will spend the money to have the next new thing. Every year we continue to see records broken for sales. Why will it start now?

    • scruffyexaminer

      I think it will come down to what kind of experience Kinect offers people like you, Slim. If you actually get your kids to play kinect with you on a regular basis and it’s a fun regular thing for the family, then MS will deserve it’s success. If, on the other hand, you and yours end up dissapointed: fail.

  • Tom

    Kinect will indeed fail, Microsoft are far too late to the party to catch the majority of casual gamers and they’re losing most of the hardcore crowd to Sony because of the PS3’s superior graphics and exclusive game quality.

    • Daniel Lawson

      What are thy losing to Sony? Japanese market share is about it… the US gap is nearly 10 million… if anything the 360 is continuing to build up it’s core fanbase and is uniquely possitioned to slowly move people into a more core focused gamer… on another note… grey on black… it’s hard to read when I’m typing I know I’m spelling crap wrong like a mofo but no spell checker for IE9 yet… wtf MS why not one build in?

  • Don

    I can’t tell if kinect will be a failure or not. They are late to the party and it does not seem to be a hardcore device. That being said if it were a casual device why would someone buy it for casual gaming? It cost $50 more then the wii, you have to pay $50 a year to play it online. This makes it $100 more then the wii off the bat. Casual gamers want simplicity in a console, not multiple controllers. The Wii provided all of that.

    Playstation move is also mistake, it cost to much and it is late to the party. It’s only saving grace is that many people purchased a PS3 as a blu-ray player with no intent of playing a game.

    I have a wii and I have no intention of intention of replacing it with either one of these poor imitations. My PS3 is my hardcore gaming/bluray player and i refuse to pay for online when my PC has better 1st person shooters then the PS3 and 360 and I can play online for free. I get maps for free and i am not limited to 16 players like the 360.

    In closing I really hope that both have some level of success so that they can inspire Nintendo to puch ahead with even greater innovations on the next console.

    • Makidian

      Move trumps Wii in every way possible, so a poor imitation it is not.

      While many people may have initially purchased a PS3 to play BD’s only I would hardly say that it was so many people that did that that it made a difference. And even if they did, they still had a gaming device to fall back on so it was a win either way you cut.

      Also, the Move can hardly be considered too expensive but the price is dictated by your family and the games you play. As it is now, most games are only two player, so the total cost would be $150, the exact same as Kinect. At the very least, you’re looking at $50 for one Move controller if you already have an Eyetoy.You only need the Navigation controller for playing games that require navigation, like RE5 or Heavy Rain, so again it’s not a necessary purchase upfront.

  • TheProblem

    Sigh. The Wii went mainstream because of Wii Fit, which cost £80 here in the UK. Wii Sports started the ball rolling, sure, but Wii Fit is what got it onto Oprah and every women’s magazine in the world.

    The console cost £170. I make that £250 all in.

    The Kinect/Xbox 360 Slim bundle is £249.99. Ipso facto, your argument is fucked.

  • wtfwtfwtf

    I think Kinect will be successful in sales but not successful in the quality of the product and games… I believe it will do good in sales because its a microsoft and xbox product… Lots of blind fanboys will follow whatever microsoft says and there is a lot of them…

  • Kalacha

    In think the Kinect will do well. Considering that these games are ‘launch’ games we cant expect much. If you take a look at the Wii it appealed to both hardcore and casual because of the variety of games. Hardcore games WILL appear on the Kinect, I for one cant wait for forza :P. PS3 fanboyehs and 360 fanboyehs have nothing on PC’s!!!!

  • The other thing that’s going to hurt Kinect is the requirements to enjoy the experience to its fullest. Having to stand 6 feet away with absolute silence during the configuring process is crazy! How many hardcore MS gamers have the space to stand 6 feet away from their console? I would say that there is a good portion of gamers that live in apartments that don’t have that kind of space, or are sharing an apartment which means there may be even less space, or how about the college students living in dorms. Microsoft has a great concept, but to me they seemed to have gotten lost in the hype of Kinect and aimed for greatness right off the bat. I hate to say the word failure before it even launches, but Kinect is reminding me of the Vision Camera – we all know how that ended.

  • Hondafan

    Please, all you fanboys make me sick. Is a console war the new prejudice. I hate you because you have what system and so what iif you like what system. I feel the same way about systems and why should buy a 360 because the online is better until it’s fee like the pc then who gives any ish. Come on Facebook, tweeter, and cross-chat is free on pc and if I want I can sign on to xb live. The only cool think about kinect is it appt.. I think kinect is 2- 5 years earl. Why is Activision asking mircosoft to low the cost of kinect(think about it kinect is the ps3 of accessories and some dev said it’s hard to program from).

  • Daniel Lawson

    I guess thos 130k pre-orders are a sign of how much the device is going to fail? Those are just US pre-orders… it’ll do fine

  • platomaker

    …you know you can get wii stuff used now.

    When they say these things are late to the party, I think its just that whatever price you pay will be the market price.

    If you wanted 2 wiimotes it may cost you 15 bucks a piece if you know where to look.

    One other thing about Kinect: I don’t see it as a failure… maybe it won’t do so well with games, but the device itself, even in the worse case scenario will still survive. Even without a controller it still sounds like a good idea.

    oh, and can someone clarify this; I heard that with the Kinect running you CANNOT use your xbox controller. As if they force you to only use your body in games.

  • Dave

    I think that if the casual gaming market is willing to buy a console and an entire rock band/guitar hero set($299 for console + $150 or more for set) then they will also be willing to buy a Kinect, if they see something they like. Microsoft will cut the price(maybe repackage it with different console option) to get more sales eventually. It is too early to call the Kinect a failure. Secondly, don’t count this out for hardcore gamers just yet, just because we haven’t seen something that is appealing doesn’t mean there never will be.

    I do agree with you that cheap is the key. Nearly every month the NPD sales show Nintendo beating both Microsoft and Playstation, I believe one of the biggest factors is price.

  • The other issue is simplicity. Not simplicity in the form of actually using Kinect, but rather setting it up. From what I have seen on the promo video n Xbox live, there are a lot of settings to go through that I just don’t think casual gamers will find attractive.

  • I pre-ordered mine the other day.

  • bkj

    I’ve sat on the sidelines for this generation of consoles until the 360 reboot and announcement of kinect.

    Kinect launch games are not great, but Dance Central and Your Shape are great for my wife and I. With Dance Central being a great party game (we already have great parties with the Lips karaoke game)

    My 2 and 3 year olds will love Kinectimals and Kinect Adventures.

    Steel Battialion and Rise of Nightmares will satisfy the hard core gamer in me when they come out in 2011.

    Video Chat and Voice Recognition add to the overall functionality/usefulness of the system.

    Bottom line is that for me (and many other tech savvy familoies). XBOX with Kinect will be our enterainment hub in the home.

  • Steven

    You have no idea what your talking about. YOur comparing the Wii system to kinect as if they were remotely the same. Sure some of the same style games are coming out for kinect but dont first person shooters come out on multiple platforms? Your basing your entire argument on the assumption that people who play video games fall into 2 categories…. Casual or Hardcore… And then on top of that your actually going to assume what each category likes. The Wii system might be cheap but you need certain accessories for certain games or certain parts in those games. With kinect you buy it once…. and thats it. Quit hating when you havent even played it yet!!!1

  • kruci

    kinect will sell, because you can also use it to go throught the menu, but you’re right, most of the people who will buy kinect are hardcore gamers and the games they are making are for the casual gamers and kids. I also think that within a year, the hardcore gamers will be disappointed with the money spend on the kinect and the games that are comming out for the kinect

  • David

    Kinect will probably sell plenty, x-box fans love anything x-box. But I think there will be a period of let down for many. If anyone is expecting what they saw in (project natal) promo commercials they are going to gravely disappointed.

    The technology really is great, but it is not going to make a lot of difference without the games.

    Steel Battalion and Rise of Nightmares are 2011 releases but with no real date schedule so it could be a full year away if they stay on schedule. Plus I am not sure how Steel Battalion will translate (probably control + kinect). It is all about the games. For hardcore gamers, you need lots of games not 2.

    Until I see a list of great games for the Kinect I will not be interested.

  • Chris

    I find the Kinect to be an upgrade and a benchmark. I love the entire wold of gaming. I prefer 360 but I don’t hate on Sony or Nintendo. I want everyone to do well and we all know competition breeds excellence. All of the companies need each other. The Wii got my parents to play video games. Their friends would have Wii parties. I’m 32. So if some 60 year olds are playing games then hats off to Nintendo. The xbox has a strong base that the Kinect will only grow. Microsoft is not alienating the hardcore fans. They have great games coming out for them. However the family market is something they have been chasing for a while and they will only bring in new buisness (maybe for life) for themselves with this device.

  • Hmmm – Kinect will fail. Damn, they only managed to sell 8 Million in the first 60 days. I’ll take that sort of failure any day!! You microsoft haters tend to embarrass yourselves often these days…..

  • Gsdsdsd

    what a dumbass.